Updated Tue Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET
NFL picks
Performance
Win %—
Record0-0
CLV—
ROI—
Last 7d0-0
Props 0-0 · Spread 0-0 · 17 pending
By conviction: 4/5 0-0 · 3/5 0-0 · 2/5 0-0 · 1/5 0-0
Player props
Sportsbook over/unders (DraftKings, FanDuel) vs. the player's 2026 game log, blended 50/50 with the no-vig price. Lines checked Tue 7:32 PM ET. Max 3/5.
| Player | Pick | Price | Model | Edge | Conf. | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALZay Flowers BAL WR · JAX@BAL | Over 44.5 rec yds | -112 DK | 65.4% | +12.6 | 3/5 | Season avg 86.9, last 5 avg 94.2 vs line 44.5 |
| BALMark Andrews BAL TE · JAX@BAL | Over 18.5 rec yds | -114 FD | 62.2% | +8.9 | 2/5 | Season avg 27.2, last 5 avg 35.4 vs line 18.5 |
| BALRashod Bateman BAL WR · JAX@BAL | Over 1.5 receptions | -106 FD | 56.3% | +4.9 | 1/5 | Season avg 2.4, last 5 avg 3.2 vs line 1.5 |
| CINTee Higgins CIN WR · CIN@ATL | Over 76.5 rec yds | -111 DK | 57.5% | +4.9 | 1/5 | Season avg 103.7, last 5 avg 84.6 vs line 76.5 |
| JAXBrenton Strange JAX TE · JAX@BAL | Over 35.5 rec yds | -114 FD | 57.8% | +4.5 | 1/5 | Season avg 47.7, last 5 avg 47.0 vs line 35.5 |
| ATLDrake London ATL WR · CIN@ATL | Under 5.5 receptions | +106 DK | 53.1% | +4.5 | 1/5 | Season avg 4.9, last 5 avg 5.4 vs line 5.5 |
| BALJa'Kobi Lane BAL WR · JAX@BAL | Over 16.5 rec yds | -110 DK | 56.8% | +4.4 | 1/5 | Season avg 22.2, last 4 avg 22.2 vs line 16.5 |
| JAXTravis Hunter JAX WR · JAX@BAL | Under 1.5 receptions | -236 DK | 73.5% | +3.2 | 1/5 | Season avg 0.9, last 5 avg 0.4 vs line 1.5 |
Player hit rates
Alt lines each player has cleared 80%+ of games this season. Dots = recent games, oldest → newest. Lines: Polymarket US alt lines, Sportsbook O/U lines (DraftKings/FanDuel). How this works
JAX@BAL Thu 8:15 PM ET
JAX
Bhayshul Tuten RB30+ rush yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 98¢
JAX
Brenton Strange TE10+ rec yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 92¢
JAX
Brenton Strange TE2+ rec
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 91¢
BAL
Derrick Henry RB40+ rush yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 8/8Season 8/8Ask 82¢
BAL
Mark Andrews TE1+ rec
100%
L5 5/5L10 8/8Season 8/8Ask 98¢
JAX
Trevor Lawrence QB175+ pass yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 86¢
BAL
Mark Andrews TE10+ rec yds
88%
L5 4/5L10 7/8Season 7/8Ask 73¢
JAX
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB10+ rush yds
86%
L5 4/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 98¢
BAL
Zay Flowers WR50+ rec yds
86%
L5 4/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 45¢
BAL
Zay Flowers WR5+ rec
86%
L5 4/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 40¢
CIN@ATL Sun 9:30 AM ET
ATL
Bijan Robinson RB60+ rush yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 8/8Season 8/8Ask 87¢
CIN
Chase Brown RB10+ rush yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 99¢
CIN
Chase Brown RB2+ rec
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 92¢
ATL
Jahan Dotson WR1+ rec
100%
L5 5/5L10 8/8Season 8/8Ask 99¢
CIN
Joe Burrow QB175+ pass yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 7/7Season 7/7Ask 94¢
ATL
Michael Penix Jr. QB125+ pass yds
100%
L5 5/5L10 6/6Season 6/6Ask 98¢
ATL
Bijan Robinson RB1+ rec
88%
L5 4/5L10 7/8Season 7/8Ask 98¢
ATL
Jahan Dotson WR10+ rec yds
88%
L5 4/5L10 7/8Season 7/8Ask 84¢
CIN
Mike Gesicki TE1+ rec
86%
L5 5/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 98¢
CIN
Tee Higgins WR50+ rec yds
86%
L5 4/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 77¢
CIN
Tee Higgins WR3+ rec
86%
L5 4/5L10 6/7Season 6/7Ask 99¢
DEN@CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET
DEN
Marvin Mims Jr. WR2+ rec
80%
L5 4/5L10 4/5Season 4/5
NFL sides & totals
All 15 games this week. Lines checked Tue 8:17 PM ET (sportsbook consensus). Highlighted rows are picks: model spread differs by 1.5+ pts with a 3%+ edge. Max 3/5.
Market impliedModelEdge50%
ARI +12ARI @ SEA · O/U 42 · -110 · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Edge+5.3Price52¢Conf2/5
TB +6TB @ CHI · O/U 47 · -108 · Sun 8:20 PM ET
Edge+3.4Price52¢Conf1/5
BAL +10JAX @ BAL · O/U 40 · -102 · Thu 8:15 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
CIN -3CIN @ ATL · O/U 52.5 · -110 · Sun 9:30 AM ET
Edge—Price52¢Conf—
CLE +1.5CLE @ NO · O/U 43 · +100 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
IND +6DAL @ IND · O/U 51.5 · -101 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
CAR +3DEN @ CAR · O/U 43.5 · -102 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
MIA +7DET @ MIA · O/U 50.5 · -105 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price51¢Conf—
WSH +5.5LAR @ WSH · O/U 47.5 · -102 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
NYG -3NYG @ PHI · O/U 40 · +100 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
NYJ +9.5NYJ @ KC · O/U 47.5 · -105 · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Edge—Price51¢Conf—
HOU -4.5HOU @ LAC · O/U 40.5 · -105 · Sun 4:05 PM ET
Edge—Price51¢Conf—
GB +3GB @ NE · O/U 47 · +101 · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Edge—Price50¢Conf—
SF -10LV @ SF · O/U 53 · -104 · Sun 4:25 PM ET
Edge—Price51¢Conf—
MIN +3BUF @ MIN · O/U 46 · +106 · Mon 8:15 PM ET
Edge—Price49¢Conf—
Anytime TD · JAX @ BAL · Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
Red-zone usage × defense vs. position. Model is new and not yet backtested.
| Player | Price | Model | Edge | Conf. | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXJakobi Meyers JAX WR | 23¢ | 29.7% | +6.7 | 3/5 | 7 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to WR (lg 0.89) |
| JAXBrian Thomas Jr. JAX WR | 15¢ | 21.3% | +6.3 | 4/5 | 4 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to WR (lg 0.89) |
| JAXNate Boerkircher JAX TE | 14¢ | 18.2% | +4.2 | 3/5 | 2 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to TE (lg 0.51) |
| BALJosh Cuevas BAL TE | 6¢ | 8.3% | +2.3 | 3/5 | 2 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 1 TDs; opp allows 0.57 TD/g to TE (lg 0.51) |
| Fade: Derrick Henry BAL RB | 51¢ | 45.7% | -5.3 | — | Priced above model |
| Fade: Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB | 44¢ | 34.2% | -9.8 | — | Priced above model |
| Fade: Parker Washington JAX WR | 41¢ | 31.1% | -9.9 | — | Priced above model |
Prop parlays · JAX @ BAL · Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
Alt lines each player has cleared in (nearly) every game. Parlay price is an estimate from multiplying leg asks.
No parlays today: at least one leg in each has no live price yet.
NFL EPA ranks
| # | Team | Off EPA/play | Def EPA/play | Net | Net L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | +0.161 | -0.099 | +0.260 | +0.294 |
| 2 | SF | +0.177 | -0.043 | +0.220 | +0.143 |
| 3 | KC | +0.126 | -0.034 | +0.160 | +0.115 |
| 4 | LA | +0.046 | -0.103 | +0.149 | +0.188 |
| 5 | CIN | +0.115 | -0.009 | +0.124 | +0.099 |
| 6 | BUF | +0.173 | +0.063 | +0.110 | +0.079 |
| 7 | CHI | +0.063 | -0.024 | +0.087 | +0.038 |
| 8 | GB | +0.005 | -0.069 | +0.073 | +0.225 |
| 9 | MIN | -0.096 | -0.169 | +0.073 | +0.064 |
| 10 | TB | -0.094 | -0.158 | +0.064 | +0.164 |
| 11 | NE | +0.064 | +0.009 | +0.055 | +0.148 |
| 12 | PIT | -0.027 | -0.074 | +0.047 | +0.150 |
| 13 | SEA | -0.054 | -0.087 | +0.033 | -0.066 |
| 14 | NYJ | +0.044 | +0.023 | +0.021 | -0.005 |
| 15 | BAL | +0.023 | +0.013 | +0.009 | -0.083 |
| 16 | DET | +0.113 | +0.110 | +0.003 | +0.035 |
| 17 | CAR | +0.031 | +0.029 | +0.003 | -0.066 |
| 18 | NYG | +0.013 | +0.011 | +0.002 | +0.093 |
| 19 | DEN | -0.022 | -0.023 | +0.002 | +0.061 |
| 20 | HOU | +0.027 | +0.031 | -0.004 | +0.069 |
| 21 | DAL | +0.091 | +0.126 | -0.035 | -0.040 |
| 22 | WAS | -0.009 | +0.028 | -0.037 | -0.032 |
| 23 | ATL | -0.095 | -0.035 | -0.060 | -0.031 |
| 24 | LV | +0.017 | +0.078 | -0.061 | -0.200 |
| 25 | CLE | -0.079 | -0.017 | -0.062 | -0.063 |
| 26 | ARI | -0.022 | +0.073 | -0.095 | -0.103 |
| 27 | NO | -0.036 | +0.075 | -0.112 | -0.162 |
| 28 | TEN | -0.088 | +0.069 | -0.158 | -0.190 |
| 29 | MIA | -0.045 | +0.131 | -0.176 | -0.136 |
| 30 | IND | -0.115 | +0.065 | -0.180 | -0.136 |
| 31 | LAC | -0.256 | -0.040 | -0.215 | -0.182 |
| 32 | PHI | -0.127 | +0.102 | -0.229 | -0.288 |